世界科技研究与发展 ›› 2023, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (S1): 104-123.doi: 10.16507/j.issn.1006-6055.2023.02.101

• 科技评价与评估 • 上一篇    

供需动态平衡下资源环境承载力评价理论模型与方法

闫卫坡1,2 郭亚琳1 王青1 安以达1 韩云伟1   

  1. 1. 西南科技大学环境与资源学院,绵阳 621010;2. 四川省环境政策研究与规划院,成都 610041
  • 出版日期:2024-02-05 发布日期:2024-02-05
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金“岷江上游山区聚落生态位图谱与影响尺度”“岷江上游山地生态服务地域分异过程与补偿阈值”(41071115,41601088),四川省重点研发项目“岷江上游藏区耕地非农化过程与风险阈值”“岷江上游干旱河谷聚落区地质灾害监测预警与精细化预报研究与示范”(2017SZ0086,2018SZ0345)

Theoretical Model and Method for Evaluation of Resources and Environment Carrying Capacity Based on the Dynamic Balance of Supply and Demand

YAN Weipo1,2   GUO Yalin1   WANG Qing1   AN Yida1   HAN Yunwei1   

  1. 1. School of Environment and Resource, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang 621010, China; 2. Sichuan Academy of Environmental policy and planning, Chengdu 610041, China
  • Online:2024-02-05 Published:2024-02-05

摘要:

资源环境承载力是认知区域人地系统发展潜能、评估自然生态系统服务功能的重要判据。在系统梳理资源环境承载力相关研究的基础上,重新认知资源环境承载力:1)资源环境承载力是某一时空尺度下资源环境供给侧与区域发展需求侧的数理关系的弹性阈值,可表征为一个状态方程;2)资源利用上线、环境质量底线、生态保护红线等约束条件是资源环境承载力综合评价模型的关键主控要素;3)识别主控要素、建立供需清单、明确供需网络是资源环境承载力综合评价模型应用需要解决的关键环节;4)现代地学技术、系统结构模型化技术、地理探测器、系统动力学等技术方法的快速发展,为模型的实践应用提供了重要的技术支撑。在此基础上,构建基于供需动态平衡理念的资源环境承载力综合评价模型,并应用该模型对岷江上游典型流域进行实证研究,测算并动态评估了该流域土地资源承载力的弹性阈值及承载状态。基于供需动态平衡理念的资源环境承载力综合评价的理论和方法研究,可为区域资源环境承载力提供新的测算工具。

关键词: 资源环境承载力, 供需动态平衡, 供需清单, 主控要素, 承载力弹性阈值, 理论模型

Abstract:

The carrying capacity of resources and environment is an important criterion to study the development potential of regional human-land system and to evaluate the service function of natural ecosystem. Based on systematic combing of the related researches, the carrying capacity of resources and environment is re-recognized as follows: (1) The carrying capacity of resources and environment is the elastic threshold of the mathematical relationship between the supply side of resources and environment and the demand side of regional development in a certain space-time scale, which can be expressed as an equation of state. (2)Constraints such as resource utilization’s upper limit, environmental quality’s bottom line and ecological red line are the master controlling factors for building the comprehensive evaluation model of resources and environmental carrying capacity. (3) Identifying the main control factors, establishing the supply and demand list and defining the supply and demand network are the key links which need to be addressed in the application of the model. (4) The rapid development of modern geoscience technology, system structure modeling technology, geographic detector, system dynamics and other technical methods can provide key technical supports for the practical application of the model. Finally, according to the analysis, a comprehensive evaluation model of the carrying capacity of resources and environment based on the dynamic balance of supply and demand is constructed. Moreover, the model is applied to an empirical study of the typical area in the upper reaches of the Min River, and the elastic threshold of the land resources carrying capacity in the area is dynamically calculated and the carrying condition is evaluated. Based on the dynamic balance of supply and demand, research on the theory and method of comprehensive evaluation of resources and environment carrying capacity can provide a new measuring tool for carrying capacity of regional resources and environment.

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