世界科技研究与发展 ›› 2023, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (2): 169-180.doi: 10.16507/j.issn.1006-6055.2022.09.002

• 科技前沿与进展 • 上一篇    下一篇

主要发达国家和地区技术趋势预测及启示

史冬梅 褚旭龙 王晶   

  1. 科学技术部高技术研究发展中心, 北京 100044
  • 出版日期:2023-04-25 发布日期:2023-04-27

Prediction and Enlightenment of Technology Trends in Major Developed Countries and Regions

SHI Dongmei   CHU Xulong   WANG Jing   

  1. High Technology Research and Development Center, Ministry of Science and Technology, Beijing 100044, China
  • Online:2023-04-25 Published:2023-04-27

摘要:

技术预测是对科技发展的未来目标、可能途径及资源条件作出的预先推测或测定,是制定国家科技政策的重要方法,受到主要发达国家和地区的高度重视。近两年,美国国家情报委员会、北约科技组织、欧洲议会未来科学与技术委员会等组织和机构,面向2040年,纷纷开展未来20年科技发展趋势预测,并分析科技对经济、社会和军事领域的重大影响,发布了重要报告。本文针对部分报告的要点,重点梳理人工智能、新材料和制造、生物技术、太空技术、自主技术、大数据技术、先进武器技术和量子技术等8 个前沿科技领域未来重点研究方向和应用发展趋势,分析面向2040 年技术发展趋势和对经济、社会、军事的影响,提出了对我国制定未来前沿科技领域发展战略的启示。

关键词: 科技趋势, 技术预测, 前沿科技, 军民应用

Abstract:

As an essential method for formulating national science and technology policies, technology prediction refers to the prediction or determination of future goals, possible ways, and resource conditions of scientific and technological development, which major developed countries have highly valued. In recent years, the National Intelligence Council of the United States, NATO, Future Science and Technology Committee of the European Parliament, and other organizations and institutions, aiming at 2040, have carried out prediction research on the future development trend of science and technology and its significant impact on the economic, social and military fields, and issued relevant reports. Aiming at the key points of relevant reports, this paper focuses on combing the future development trends of eight cutting-edge scientific and technological fields, such as artificial intelligence, new materials and manufacturing, biotechnology, space technology, independent technology, big data technology, advanced weapon technology, and quantum technology,  analyzes the technological development trend and its impact on the economy, society, and economy in 2040, and puts forward enlightenment for the future development of China's scientific and technological field.

Key words: Science and Technology Trend, Technology Forecast, Cutting Edge of Science and Technology, Military and Civilian Applications