世界科技研究与发展 ›› 2024, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (1): 90-107.doi: 10.16507/j.issn.1006-6055.2023.06.005

• 科技政策与管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于三维分析框架的我国省级“双碳”政策评价研究

金璐瑶1,2 曾静静1   

  1. 1.中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院，兰州 730000；2.中国科学院大学经济与管理学院信息资源管理系，北京 100190
  • 出版日期:2024-02-25 发布日期:2024-03-04
  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院战略研究与决策支持系统建设专项项目“双碳”行动计划战略研究（GHJ-ZLZX-2023-06），中国科学院文献情报能力建设专项“科技领域战略情报研究与决策咨询体系建设”（Y9290001）

Research on the Evaluation of China’s Provincial “Dual Carbon” Policies Based on the Three-Dimensional Analysis Framework

JIN Luyao1,2   ZENG Jingjing1   

  1. 1. Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China; 2. Department of Information Resources Management, School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
  • Online:2024-02-25 Published:2024-03-04

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摘要：

“双碳”政策是我国近年来的新兴议题，开展我国省级“双碳”政策文本的量化评价能够掌握当前各省“双碳”工作的发展概况。本文从政策体系中纵向、横向、个体三个角度出发，构建了省级“双碳”政策的三维分析框架“政策响应度- 政策齐备度- 政策协同度”，利用LDA 主题模型实现政策文本量化，结合政策扩散、PMC 模型、政策协同等理论与方法，实现各维度的指标计算；而后应用该框架对79 份省级“双碳”政策文本进行量化分析。得到各省“双碳”政策集在三个维度上的具体得分，分析其内在原因，总结其发展概况，并从发展进程、政策主题、政策组合、政策协同四个方面提出了政策建议。最后总结了本文的研究局限与未来研究展望。

关键词: 碳达峰, 碳中和, 省级政策, 政策评价, 文本挖掘

Abstract:

Due to the fact that the “dual carbon” policy has become an emerging issue in China in recent years, conducting a quantitative evaluation of Chinese provincial-level “dual carbon” policy text can grasp the current development overview of “dual carbon” work in various provinces. Starting from three vertical, horizontal, and individual perspectives in the policy system, this paper constructs a three-dimensional analytical framework for provincial-level “dual carbon” policies, namely “Policy responsiveness-Policy completeness-Policy synergy”. The LDA topic model is used to quantify policy text, and the indicators of all dimensions are calculated by combining the theories and methods of policy diffusion, PMC modeland policy synergy. Apply this framework to analyze 79 provincial “dual carbon” policy texts quantitatively. Obtain specific scores for each province’s “dual carbon” policy set in three dimensions, analyze its internal reasons, provide an overall development overview, and further propose policy recommendations from four aspects: development process, policy themes, policy combinations, and policy synergy. Finally, the research limitations and prospects are summarized.

Key words: Carbon Peak, Carbon Neutrality, Provincial Policies, Policy Evaluation, Text Mining

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